Early tremors in unemployment data warn of COVID-19 crash
Posted 19 May 2020
The Office for National Statistics has released new figures on employment levels today, following new figures from the Department for Work and Pensions on the numbers applying for Universal Credit in England. They show:
A huge rise in the number of people applying for Universal Credit (UC), with a 69% increase in claims between March and April, taking the total above 2.097 million.
Despite the government’s furlough scheme aimed at retaining people’s jobs, there have been over 900,000 new claims for UC since mid-March.
The separate ONS figures on employment, show that 50,000 more people were unemployed in the first quarter (January to March 2020) compared to year ago.
The employment figures largely predate the impact of the COVID-19 lockdown, but the small rise compared with the tail-end of 2019, hints at the economic chaos to come and the subsequent surge in unemployment reflected by the Universal Credit data.
Shelter’s previous research showed almost one in five private renters in England – an estimated 1.7 million adults – expect to lose their job in the next three months.
Polly Neate, chief executive of Shelter, said: “With a huge surge in people applying for benefits and early warning signs of major job losses to come, it’s clear that COVID-19 is going to send shockwaves through our economy like never before.
“We know from our services that thousands of renters are suddenly scrambling to stay afloat, and for those who’ve become unemployed, the furlough scheme is no help at all. Many are turning to Universal Credit in a desperate bid to pay their rent but are quickly finding out housing benefit levels are too low to break their fall.
“People paying average rents face huge shortfalls and many are racking up serious debts that put their homes at risk. Without more support, they will be swept up in a tidal wave of evictions when the government ban lifts. To prevent this, housing benefit must be increased to cover average rents and the benefit cap lifted – to give people a fighting chance.”
ENDS
Notes to editors:
Statistical data comes from the ONS Monthly Labour Market Overview which contains results of the Labour Force Survey (which looks at employment). The data presented above covers the month of March. Most analysts expect unemployment to rise further in the April release.
The Claimant Count is generated from actual Universal Credit and Job Seekers allowance claims. DWP then provide data on claims to be processed by the ONS to make them official statistics. The process means that there is a delay between claims and the statistics being released.
Shelter’s previous research was carried out by YouGov, who surveyed 498 privately rented adults in England. Fieldwork was undertaken between 24th - 27th March 2020. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all privately renting adults (aged 18+) according to information provided by Shelter.
Estimates of the population of renters are calculated using a combination of the English Housing Survey 2018-19, Census 2011 and ONS 2018 mid-year population estimates by age. All calculations by Shelter. All estimates are based off a total adult population of 8,674,570 private renters in England.
Shelter estimates that 1,696,000 private renters think they are likely to lose their job in the next three months. One in five (19%) renters said that this was either very or fairly likely.
