“Rent wall” battleground: fed-up private renters could swing the next election and two thirds say housing is key to their vote
Posted 30 Sep 2022
Shelter calls on all political parties to act on their manifesto commitments on rental reform
Private renting voters could be critical in deciding the outcome of the next General Election and housing policies, like fixing private renting, will influence how they vote, according to new MRP polling carried out by Stack Data Strategy on behalf of Shelter.
The polling of more than 10,000 adults in Great Britain shows there is a growing “rent wall” in 38 key constituencies where private renters are set to be decisive at the ballot box. For example, seats like Hastings and Rye, Milton Keynes North and Gloucester are predicted to switch.
The poll shows that one in three private renters who voted for the Conservative Party in 2019 – 400,000 – now plan to vote for another political party. However, Stack’s projection suggests no political party is currently on course to win a majority, making renters’ votes even more critical. The Conservative Party is predicted to win 266 seats and Labour 298 seats – 55 and 23 seats short of a majority respectively.
The cost of living crisis means the majority of the electorate think it is even more urgent to fix the country’s housing problems. Half of the electorate – equivalent to 15 million voters – say that housing policies, such as fixing private renting and building more social homes, will influence which party they vote for at the next General Election. This figure rises to two thirds (63%) of private renters – equivalent to 3.9 million voters.
Despite their growing political clout, private renters are still more likely than homeowners or social renters to think that politicians do not care about them. Shelter is urging all politicians to show they are on the side of tenants by championing the long-promised Renters’ Reform Bill, which will see Section 21 no-fault evictions scrapped in England. It is also calling on every party to prioritise building a new generation of decent social homes with rents pegged to local wages.
Aaron Iftikhar, Director at Stack Data Strategy, said: “This work shows that the Conservatives haven’t only got "red wall" seats to worry about, they also need to address a growing "rent wall" in the Conservative heartlands, where voters who rent privately are disillusioned with the party.
“One in three private renters who voted Conservative in 2019 wouldn't vote for them today, but the most interesting thing is that they haven't found a political home yet.3.9 million private renters have made very clear that tackling their housing problems is key to winning their vote. It’s obvious that no political party can afford to ignore private renters if they want to win the next General Election.”
Polly Neate, Chief Executive of Shelter, said: “Private renters are sick of hollow promises, they want politicians to hurry up and fix renting. This poll should be a loud wake-up call for every party.
“Millions of private renters are fed up of paying through the nose to live in insecure and dangerous homes. Now the cost of living crisis is making the cracks in our broken rental system wider. Yet tenants are powerless to challenge conditions or unfair rent hikes for fear of no-fault evictions.
“Private renting voters will be critical at the next General Election, but they feel let down by politicians who haven’t done enough on housing. By getting the long-promised Renters’ Reform Bill across the line, politicians can show millions of renters and their families that they care. Politicians must act to make private renting safer and fairer before voters get to the ballot box.”
CASE STUDY: Ellen, 41, has been renting for over a decade and currently lives with her 12-year-old son in a two-bedroom rental in Hastings and Rye. The family are being evicted from their home and, despite working full-time, Ellen is struggling to find somewhere in the local area she can afford.
Speaking about her experience, Ellen said: “Private renting is my only option. But like loads of other renters out there, I’ve been told by my landlord to leave my home through no fault of my own. The insecurity is crippling. I’m struggling to find somewhere in Rye but need to stay local because my son goes to school here. My family are here, and I’ve always lived here. If we can’t find something I can afford, I don’t know what we’re going to do.
“The biggest issue in our country now is housing. I want politicians to do something to sort out renting so that families like mine can have somewhere decent to live and some stability. I’m not sure yet how I’ll vote at the next election, but to be honest if a political party came up with something that would help me, I’d be open to voting for them.”
Anyone who is worried about losing their home can contact Shelter for free and expert help by visiting www.shelter.org.uk/get_help.
Notes to editors:
1. There are 38 seats uncovered by our MRP analysis - mostly in London and the South - in which private renters are a key voting bloc. These seats will likely determine whether the Conservative party wins a majority at the next election.
To be included in this seat count, the seat had to have the following properties:
A greater proportion of private renters than the national average (15%)
A greater drop in the 2019 private renting Tory vote than generally in the seat (i.e. private renters were moving away from the party at a quicker rate than the seat was in general)
The constituents linked their future vote intent to housing policy at a level which was higher than the national average
Using this framework we arrived at the 38 seats in which private renters will be key in the next General election:
| Constituency | Name | % Private Renters in Constituency | % Decrease in 2019 Conservative voters who are private renters | Definition |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| E14000731 | Harrow East | 22% | -23% | Group 1 |
| E14000821 | Milton Keynes North | 22% | -26% | Group 1 |
| E14000735 | Hastings and Rye | 22% | -27% | Group 1 |
| E14000822 | Milton Keynes South | 20% | -26% | Group 1 |
| E14000712 | Gloucester | 17% | -29% | Group 1 |
| E14000890 | Reading West | 17% | -27% | Group 1 |
| E14001056 | Wycombe | 16% | -23% | Group 1 |
| E14001052 | Worcester | 16% | -26% | Group 1 |
| E14000616 | Camborne and Redruth | 15% | -29% | Group 1 |
| E14000875 | Pendle | 15% | -37% | Group 1 |
| E14000652 | Crawley | 15% | -28% | Group 1 |
| E14000702 | Filton and Bradley Stoke | 15% | -28% | Group 1 |
| W07000060 | Vale of Clwyd | 15% | -35% | Group 1 |
| E14000573 | Blackpool South | 25% | -36% | Group 2 |
| E14000955 | Southampton, Itchen | 20% | -28% | Group 2 |
| E14000972 | Stoke-on-Trent Central | 18% | -29% | Group 2 |
| E14001051 | Wolverhampton South West | 15% | -29% | Group 2 |
| E14000896 | Richmond Park | 23% | -20% | Group 3 |
| E14000948 | South Thanet | 22% | -26% | Group 3 |
| W07000064 | Ceredigion | 18% | -36% | Group 3 |
| E14000989 | Telford | 17% | -28% | Group 3 |
| E14000670 | Dover | 16% | -25% | Group 3 |
| E14001055 | Worthing West | 15% | -27% | Group 3 |
| W07000057 | Arfon | 15% | -14% | Group 3 |
| E14000639 | Cities of London and Westminster | 39% | -23% | Group 4 |
| E14000768 | Kensington | 32% | -19% | Group 4 |
| E14001040 | Wimbledon | 27% | -16% | Group 4 |
| E14000741 | Hendon | 26% | -25% | Group 4 |
| E14000636 | Chipping Barnet | 20% | -19% | Group 4 |
| E14000792 | Lincoln | 20% | -19% | Group 4 |
| E14001007 | Uxbridge and South Ruislip | 19% | -24% | Group 4 |
| E14001003 | Truro and Falmouth | 17% | -26% | Group 4 |
| E14000947 | South Swindon | 17% | -29% | Group 4 |
| E14000629 | Chelsea and Fulham | 32% | -21% | Group 5 |
| E14000703 | Finchley and Golders Green | 30% | -18% | Group 5 |
| E14000770 | Kingston and Surbiton | 22% | -10% | Group 5 |
| E14001005 | Twickenham | 19% | -12% | Group 5 |
| E14000656 | Croydon South | 15% | -20% | Group 5 |
The seats were classified in the following way:
| Key | Description | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Group 1 | Labour pick-up in the MRP and seat is now marginal, where private renters are in greater numbers than the national average, and 2019 Tory private renters are dropping at a greater rate than the general Tory drop in that constituency | ||
| Group 2 | Labour pick-up in the MRP and seat is now safe Lab, where private renters are in greater numbers than the national average, and 2019 Tory private renters are dropping at a greater rate than the general Tory drop in that constituency | ||
| Group 3 | Non-Labour pick-up in the MRP and seat is now marginal, where private renters are in greater numbers than the national average, and 2019 Tory private renters are dropping at a greater rate than the general Tory drop in that constituency | ||
| Group 4 | Labour pick-up in the MRP and seat is now marginal, where private renters are in greater numbers than the national average, but 2019 Tory private renters are dropping at the same / a similar rate than the general Tory drop in that constituency | ||
| Group 5 | Non-Labour pick-up in the MRP and seat is now marginal, where private renters are in greater numbers than the national average, but 2019 Tory private renters are dropping at the same / a similar rate than the general Tory drop in that constituency | ||
2. 80% of respondents said that the cost of living crisis has made it more urgent for the government to fix the country’s housing problems.
| Has the cost of living crisis made it more or less urgent for the Government to fix the country's housing problems? | Total |
|---|---|
| Much more urgent | 47% |
| A bit more urgent | 33% |
| A bit less urgent | 7% |
| A lot less urgent | 2% |
| Don't know | 10% |
3. 63% of private renters said housing policies, such as improving private renting and building more social homes, will be a factor when I'm deciding who to vote for in the next General Election.
Housing policies, such as improving private renting and building more social homes, will be a factor when I'm deciding who to vote for in the next General Election (MRP polling):
| Total | Own outright | Own with mortgage | Rent your home from a housing association or other social rent | Rent your home from a private landlord | Live with family, relatives, or friends rent free and/or pay rent | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strongly agree | 17% | 13% | 15% | 22% | 25% | 18% |
| Somewhat agree | 33% | 29% | 35% | 33% | 38% | 35% |
| Neither agree nor disagree | 26% | 28% | 26% | 27% | 23% | 27% |
| Somewhat disagree | 15% | 18% | 16% | 11% | 10% | 12% |
| Strongly disagree | 9% | 12% | 9% | 6% | 4% | 8% |
4. Only 67% of Conservative voters who rent privately would vote for the party if an election were held today. This number is higher amongst homeowners (72%) and more so amongst those who own their home outright (75%).
5. 65% of private renters think that politicians do not care about them, higher than homeowners who own outright (43%), homeowners with a mortgage (54%) and social renters (61%).
| Which of the following statements best describes how you think politicians view people your tenure at the moment? | Own outright | Own with mortgage | Rent your home from a housing association or other social rent | Rent your home from a private landlord |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Politicians care about people in my tenure | 22% | 24% | 16% | 17% |
| Politicians don't care about people in my tenure | 43% | 54% | 61% | 65% |
| Don�t know | 35% | 23% | 23% | 18% |
Polling Methodology
On behalf of Shelter, Stack polled a representative sample of 10,000 adults across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted between the 9th and 20th September 2022, and was weighted to age and gender interlocked, education status, region and vote in the 2019 UK General Election. The full results can be found here.
Numbers based on samples below 50 respondents should not be seen as representative of the demographic as a whole, and due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not add up to 100%.
MRP Methodology
On behalf of Shelter, Stack polled a representative sample of 10,000 adults across Great Britain. Fieldwork was conducted between the 9th and 20th September 2022. This data was used in our MRP model, which combines various demographic and political variables to produce vote intention estimates for each constituency.
All predictions made by the model come with an associated uncertainty. Top line estimates represent the most likely outcome in each constituency, but the full prediction is given by the estimate alongside the uncertainty.
About Shelter: Shelter exists to defend the right to a safe home and fight the devastating impact the housing emergency has on people and society. Shelter believes that home is everything. Learn more at www.shelter.org.uk.
About Stack Data Strategy: Stack Data Strategy is a research and data company based in London. We help clients in a wide variety of domains solve problems that engage public opinion. Our team have backgrounds covering political science, statistics, economics, strategic communications, market research and government. We offer the full suite of analytical services, from data collection and mixed method primary research, through modelling and advanced statistics, to strategic advice and consultancy.