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Only building on brownfield land won’t solve London’s housing shortage, says Shelter

Posted 23 Feb 2016

New report highlights the variety of methods needed to tackle the housing crisis gripping the capital.

Mayoral Candidates looking for a credible strategy to build the homes London needs must look beyond building only on brownfield land, according to a new report by Shelter and Quod.

The new analysis of the capital's land, carried out by planning consultancy Quod for the charity, reveals that the vast majority of brownfield land – two thirds – is already used for housing. Much of the rest is used for vital infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, and transport links, or already earmarked for development.

The report highlights that, to double housing delivery and meet the current demand for 50,000 homes a year using brownfield land alone, London would need the equivalent of four Olympic Park developments every year, in addition to all current development. Given that this project took seven years to complete, despite the clear deadline and mass public support, the implausibility of relying on similar developments to meet the housing shortage is clear.

Alongside brownfield land, the report examines a variety of options which could be used to address London's housing crisis, including:

  • Building higher – High buildings have the potential to increase the number of homes in developments, but good design, and smart planning policy from the next Mayor, is essential.

  • Green Belt – Building on some bits of the green belt should be an option, if done right. Smaller, controlled release of appropriate bits of green belt land could deliver substantial numbers of new homes.

  • Garden Cities – Garden Cities outside of London could reduce economic and space pressures on the capital, but is likely to be a slow option, and is dependent on the compliance of local authorities.

Shelter and Quod are warning that there is no 'silver bullet solution' – for example just building on brownfield land, or only focussing on high rise developments - that can solve London's housing crisis on its own.

They are calling on the mayoral candidates to present a range of options that can tackle the capital's housing shortage once and for all.

Campbell Robb, Shelter's Chief Executive said: "Decades of failure to build enough homes means that there's no silver-bullet solution when it comes to fixing London's chronic housing shortage.

"If a candidate's setting out a solution that seems easy, they're not doing enough. This crisis is a challenge that we can fix – but only leadership, ambition, and a strategy that leaves all these options on the table can turn things around."

"Now's the time for the Mayoral candidates to show Londoners that they have the strategy to deliver the homes the capital needs – homes that people on ordinary wages can actually afford to rent or buy."

Barney Stringer, Director at Quod, said: "We cannot just carry on with past policies yet expect house building to double.

"The need for more homes is so great that we can't afford to rule out options like more tall buildings or green belt development.

"Everything we rule out means pushing the remaining options to greater extremes, and reduces the chance of ever providing the homes London needs. "

What would happen if you adopted just one approach to fixing London's housing crisis?

Only building by unlocking Brownfield sites

There's limited brownfield space left in London, with two thirds of it
already taken up by housing, and the rest by infrastructure such as town
centres or industrial land. These developments also tend to take huge amounts
of time, with one Kings Cross development, due to be completed in 2020, 35
years after the initial action plan was put together by the Greater London Council.

With this in mind, London would need the equivalent of four Olympic
Park developments every year to meet the demand for homes, in addition to existing development, if this were the only method used. Brownfield is essential, but can't deliver on its own.

Just allowing more tall buildings

If the only mechanism we used to fix our housing crisis was to build higher, we'd need to build a fifty-storey tower in the capital every three days, in addition to all existing development. Tall buildings are important to get the most from limited land, but won't be enough on their own.

Only releasing greenbelt land

If we just used the green belt as a mechanism to make up the shortfall in housebuilding, we'd need to build on 13% of the green belt in Greater London over 8 years, fundamentally changing London's footprint.

Developing plans for new towns or garden cities outside the capital as a sole solution

Milton Keynes is the most successful new town, building 2,700 new homes a year at its peak in the 1980s. We would need 10 Milton Keynes building at that rate (in addition to existing development ) to meet London's housing shortage, if our plan was to fix the housing crisis purely by building garden cities.

Notes to editors:

Shelter has been helping people fight bad housing and homelessness for 50 years. For free and independent advice from Shelter visit shelter.org.uk/advice or call the helpline on 0808 800 4444.

Quod is a specialist, independent consultancy at the cutting edge of planning and
development economics. Visit Quod.com or contact hello@quod.com or call 020 3597 1000

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