Renters hold the keys to Number 10

In September, we commissioned the polling company, Stack Data Strategy, to conduct a nationally representative poll of 10,000 voters across the UK.

This disruptive ‘Rentquake’ research makes essential reading for every politician and policy-maker in the UK, bringing to light three key learnings that will certainly influence the next election.

Private renters could swing the outcome of the next general election by casting decisive votes in 38 key battleground ‘rent wall’ constituencies
Private renters are moving away from the Conservative Party at a faster rate than homeowners and social renters. One in three (400,000) private renters who voted Conservative in 2019 are now abandoning the party
Private renters’ votes are up for grabs, as two-thirds of them don’t think politicians care about people renting from private landlords

Key battlegrounds

These 38 constituencies could be the decisive seats that swing the next general election.

These seats share the following characteristics:

a greater density of private renters than the national average (15%)
in these seats, there was a greater drop in the 2019 private renting Conservative votes compared to the average across the rest of the country (i.e. private renters were moving away from the party at a quicker rate than the seat was in general)
the constituents linked their future vote intent to housing policy at a level that was higher than the national average

Rentquake: A national housing emergency

This bar chart shows a comparison of sentiment based on housing tenure.

Renters are held back by their housing

These bar charts show the percentage of respondents by housing tenure that agreed with each statement.

Renters will influence the next election

This research shows that the Conservatives haven’t only got 'red wall' seats to worry about, they also need to address a growing 'rent wall' in the Conservative heartlands.

Renters will make their voices heard in the next general election and if political parties have a hope of forming a government, they must make housing policies that have renters in mind.

Projected election results vs 2019 general election results

Constituency map showing the projected winner for the next general election based on polling data

Constituency map showing the winners of the 2019 general election

Projected general election result

A breakdown of the projected winner for the next general election by constituency - based on polling data.

2019 general election results

A breakdown of the 2019 election results by constituency.

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